The Future Isn't What It Used To be 

In 2055, my daughter will be the age I am now. What kind of world will she live in?

Trying to forecast what may happen in four decades can be an exercise in futility. Many 'futurists' have lousy track records, although as Dan Gardner points out in his book Future Babble, that doesn't stop them from guessing. Still, an informed look at what may happen often shapes what does happen.

Or sometimes not.

The prevailing wisdom of the early 1900s had the development of 'heavier than air machines' at least 50 years off. And there was the almost giddy certainty in the 1950s (and 60s, and 70s) that soon everyone would be using flying cars.

Then there were the negative misses, events or technologies that caught everyone off guard. Ten years ago, no one understood the impact of marrying new-fangled smart phones with social media. Inconsequential? Not with disturbing video clips or instant tweets constantly roiling the news cycle. An even bigger miss was the impact of 'the internet', and in 1994, this new thing called the World Wide Web. Yes, there was excitement about 'ease of use' and 'connectivity' on the 'information superhighway', but no one understood the profound ways in which those technologies would change business, politics, entertainment, security and even the way we think.

In trying to read the future, there will always be things that comes out of left field, be they new technologies or unforeseen 'black swans' of social order like food availability or armed conflict. So, while no one can say what will happen, there are present-day realities that point to fascinating possibilities for the future.

A well-researched site called FutureTimeline.net includes these predictions for 2055: nearly half of the Amazon rainforest will have been deforested; fish body size will decline by nearly a quarter; genetically engineered "designer babies" will be possible (which carries with it the whiff of eugenics); global population has reached a plateau; average global temperatures has risen by 3°C

Then there are the think-tanks in Australia projecting mile-high buildings in 2055, built with nanotube technology. Instead of exterior windows, you'll look at augmented reality screens. Speaking of which: will advances in VR (Virtual Reality) and AR (Augmented Reality) mean the need and/or desire for travel will diminish? Will cutting-edge VR give such an "almost there" experience that people will forego travel, or will they still insist on the sights and smells of actually being there?

Perhaps the biggest impact in the lives of people in 2055 will come from AI, Artificial Intelligence. To its benefit, Canada is investing in the development of AI, but predicting where it takes us is challenging. What happens when existing AI helps in the design of faster and better AI, which it turn creates even faster AI (or ASI, Artificial Super Intelligence)? Will this 'intelligence' be smarter that we are, and if so, will it want to take Puni Humanis along for the ride?

Ray Kurzweil is a future theorist and noted expert in AI. He has his detractors, but even they agree that he's a very bright guy with some almost-prescient technological insight. Kurzweil thinks the most important advances in the years leading up to 2055 will come from technologies powered by AI, technologies including nanotechnology, bio-genetics and robotics. On his web site singularityhub.com, he predicts that "The genetics revolution will allow us to reprogram our own biology," all because of overlapping AI technologies.

What would that mean for our health?

In 2055, advances in the technology of healthcare may walk lockstep with advances in life span. A hundred years ago, the average Canadian's life expectancy was under 50 years; a baby born this year has a projected life span of more than 80 years. While the rate of increase has reached a plateau in the last couple of decades, some futurists say that medical and technological advances point to the possibility that there is a child alive today who will live to be hundreds of years old. Further, at some point in the next 40-odd years, we may have developed the ability to use bio-technology - including the concept of uploading consciousness to a machine- to enable virtual immortality.

Sticking with more concrete projections for year 2055, how about those 'flying cars' we've always heard about? Of course, who needs them when we'll have autonomous cars, which are just around the corner, right?

Well, not so fast. SAE International (formerly the Society of Automotive Engineers) defines six levels of automation in vehicles, and most cars on the road today are at level 0. Widespread use of fully autonomous cars- the driver sets the destination, and does nothing else - are by most estimates decades away. (Then again, remember predictions for 'heavier-than-air-machines"?)

The use of autonomous vehicles will have a huge affect on employment. The loss of millions of driving jobs - drivers in cabs, transport trucks and delivery vehicles, for instance - is obvious. But if, as predicted, using autonomous cars prevents 90% of accidents, what happens to body shops and tow truck operators? The CAA? Driving schools? What happens to everyone selling car insurance, or the insurance industry itself?

What about police officers? By some estimates, police spend almost 50% of their time tending to traffic issues. With far fewer 'issues' - no speeding, no illegal turns, little road rage and few accidents- fewer officers will be needed on the road.  

And that's just related to the automotive sector. What are the consequences of advanced technology for all employment? How many of today's jobs will simply not exist in 2055? Of course, technological advances will also create new jobs in fields that don't even exist today. Clearly, though, automation will continue its inexorable entry into the workplace.

In the future, whither media - or perhaps more appropriately: wither media?

This story is on-line or in print because of 'legacy media'. Will that even exist in 2055? Most social scientists and media observers expect the ongoing fragmentation of the media to continue. Even today, it's possible for anyone to design what is in effect a personal news feed. The concept of 'gatekeepers' of information - the legacy media - is eroding, quickly. If five billion people are on-line in 2055, there could be five billion different channels of information. What does that mean for the dissemination of truth, for the veracity of real news and real facts, particularly relevant given what's happening right now in media?

In turn, what does that mean for society as a whole in 2055? Some social scientists suggest that nationalism around the globe will increase, driven by a growing number of climate refugees, a fractured global economy and increasing income disparity. There may be more democracies, but many democratic freedoms may have been traded away for 'security'. In fact, pervasive security concerns may trump many personal freedoms including privacy and freedom of association.

Even educated guesses this far removed from 2055 may be no more accurate than any number of science fiction scenarios ranging from peace, light and harmony to whatever dystopian future comes to mind. But remember that science fiction has inspired many young minds to pursue research and careers in advanced technology and the sciences. And those young minds will be shaping their world in ways we can only imagine.

Tom New

March 31, 2017