A Failure of Imagination caused three million deaths. (first published April, 2021)

 It’s fair to say that most Canadians are disappointed with the slow and problematic roll-out of vaccinations in Canada. In mid-February 2021, we were 41st in the world in the number of vaccinations in arms per capita. As of the beginning of April, we are… 47th (New York Times), a national embarrassment to many Canadians.

 There’s plenty of blame to go around for our sloppy response (and at the same time, profuse kudos for so many people doing really good work with limited resources and confusing information). Worse, though, is this overriding fact about the global pandemic: we were caught napping. A massive failure of imagination has already caused almost three million deaths around the world.

 The writing was on the wall- and it was in reports, studies and recommendations for all the world to see (and ignore). In Canada, we were caught flat-footed with inadequate PPE supplies, a rickety Long Term Care infrastructure (or lack thereof) and delayed border restrictions. And of course, somebody allowed the 2019 ‘retasking’ of the Global Public Health Intelligence Network to proceed. If GPHIN had been allowed to follow their original mandate, the world may have had an extra few weeks to mitigate what was about to hit.

 Two weeks ago, the Auditor-General of Canada released a report on pandemic preparedness: “Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages.” (CBC)

 How did people with their hands on the levers of power – including the federal government, PHAC and Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response (CEPR) – not know this was going to happen, especially when there was so much warning out there for all the world to see? A ‘failure of imagination’ puts in kindly. Less kindly, it was a massive dereliction of duty.

 And how could they not know? Exhibits A through infinitum:

 Let’s start with this Time cover story from 2017.

Gee, what if we had a playbook for a pandemic? What if we had one 14 years ago? (Globe and Mail)

Can you imagine if Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer talked about preparing for a pandemic- in 2005? (CBC)

Big Money knew it was coming; why didn’t our leaders know? (Wall Street Journal)

And of course, who could have foreseen the potential for carnage in the Long Term Care ‘community? Well, The Ottawa Citizen’s Elizabeth Payne did, in this Dec. 8, 2017 article 

This pandemic was widely expected by many people in the know, but it was not taken seriously enough by any government, anywhere (and that includes previous governments). There was plenty of warning about the certainty of a global pandemic, about the wretched state of long term care facilities in Canada, and about the lack of political will to address the issues involved. Canada should have done better; the world should have done better.

 There are strategic studies groups all over the world that plan for, among other possibilities, pandemics. Plug a term like ‘wargaming a pandemic’ into Google, you’ll hit dozens of articles, old and new, that address the certainty of global pandemics. Don’t governments heed their own reports? (Short answer: not much). Don’t they listen to their own scientists? (Again, not much). More to the point, don’t they read? Don’t they watch TV? Don’t they go to movies? (try watching Contagion again, if you can stand it). If scientists, journalists, writers, novelists and moviemakers can ‘imagine’ it, why can’t the people with their hands on the levers of power? You could say a pox on all their houses, but they might miss the irony.

 There’s much talk about a ‘great reset’ and ‘building back better’, but it’s fair to be skeptical of promises to ‘do better’, because we’ve heard them before. We had our warnings with SARS and MERS, and governments and their agencies didn’t pay attention. They had the wrong people at the table. Will they have the political will now? Will they have the right people at the table-  you know, people who understand what so many others saw right in front of their faces?

 What can you do? What can we all do? Well, remember your anger, and channel it. Get on your MP, MPP, MNA or MLA. Get on the leaders of your party, and the parties you didn’t vote for. Write, text, phone, tweet, agitate for action, anything to prevent another failure of imagination. Do it now, do it in a year, do it every year. Start with the state of LTC (added incentive: many of us will end up in the LTC system in the future), then ask about preparation for the next pandemic, or endemics. Ask about up-to-date PPE stockpiles, and scalable domestic vaccine production (and its timetable). Ask about health care for an aging population, and preventative health care for everyone (which will save big money in the long run).

 And ask who will be at the table looking at threats to society, and who will be there to mitigate those threats. And demand that they get rid of the people without the imagination to do either.

 Tom New April 2021